In collaborations between dominant manufacturers and localized retailers, contract violations in the likes of delayed delivery, product defects, and unfulfilled orders are common and inevitable. Forecast sharing is a de facto practice to cope with the risk of contract violation, but it suffers from forecast manipulation whereby retailers deliberately distort forecast information for partisan interests. This study attempts to shed light on how the frequency and severity of manufacturer’s previous contract violations affect retailers’ inclination to partake in forecast inflation and/or deflation. Furthermore, this study delineates between goodwill trust and competence trust as moderators that dictate the impact of previous contract violations. To validate hypothesized relationships, this study analyzed a matched dataset containing operational data and survey data collected from a dominant home appliance manufacturer and its localized retailers based in China. By employing random-effects feasible generalized least squares to test hypotheses, this research arrives at three distinct observations. First, the frequency of contract violation culminates in forecast deflation while the severity of contract violation causes forecast inflation. Second, goodwill trust reinforces the effects of contract violation frequency on forecast deflation and that of contract violation severity on forecast inflation. Finally, competence trust only alleviates the impact of contract violation severity on forecast inflation.

主讲人简介： 

LIU Hefu, Professor,Director of Department of Management Science, Department of Management Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Associate Editor of Information Technology & People and Electronic Commerce Research and Applications.

Research areas: supply chain management, IT value creation, digital commerce models, omni-channel management.

His papers have been published in journals including Journal of Operations Management, MIS Quarterly, Journal of Business Ethics, Decision Science, and Decision Support Systems.