A research paper titled "Pains or Gains: Trade War, Trade Deficit, and Tariff Evasion," co-authored by Professor Che Yi from the Department of Economics at the Business School of East China University of Science and Technology, has been published online in the top-tier journal Journal of International Economics. Professor Che is the lead author of the study.

    The research reveals that during the period of trade tariff changes between the United States and China, the reduction in the U.S. trade deficit with China masked the distortion in reported imports from China due to tariff evasion. The paper empirically examines the impact of U.S.-China trade tariff changes on tariff evasion behavior in imports from China and provides direct evidence that market demand in U.S. states significantly drives tariff evasion. Analysis based on input-output tables shows that after tariff changes, for every one standard deviation increase in local market demand, the degree of tariff evasion for affected products increases by 1.312 times. This effect is primarily realized through the trade of intermediate goods and intensifies with the increase in importers' tariff burden. Further analysis incorporating local social environments indicates that voters' attitudes toward trade protectionism and the level of union development play a key role in moderating the impact of market demand on tariff evasion.

    Journal of International Economics is widely recognized as a leading journal in the field of international trade, publishing theoretical and empirical research on topics including trade patterns, international exchange rates, and international finance.

    Professor Che Yi is a recipient of the Shanghai Pujiang Talent Program and specializes in international trade, world economy, and international business. He has led projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and received the Outstanding Young Research Achievement Award in Humanities and Social Sciences from the Ministry of Education. His work has been published in top-tier journals such as Journal of International Economics, Journal of International Business Studies, Economic Journal, and Economic Quarterly (in Chinese), and he serves as a reviewer for journals including the American Economic Review.

Paper Information: Che, Yi, Donglin Lin, and Yan Zhang. 2025. Pains or gains: Trade war, trade deficit, and tariff evasion. Journal of International Economics, 104090.