Title: Research on the Potential Growth Space for China's Grain Production

Speaker: Rudai Yang

Time: November 14^th, 2025 (Friday) 16:00

Venue: 318, School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology

Organizer: School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology

Guest Bio:
  Rudai Yang is a Distinguished Professor at the School of Economics, Peking University, and a Distinguished Professor under the Ministry of Education's Major Talent Program. His research focuses on industrial economics and development economics. He has led multiple research projects, including a major project funded by the National Social Science Fund. His papers have been published in journals such as Economic Research Journal, Management World, and World Development. He has received provincial and ministerial-level awards including the 16th An Ziji International Trade Research Outstanding Paper Award. He serves on the editorial board of journals including Economics Quarterly.

Synopsis:

  This lecture employs simulation analysis at both macro and micro household levels to explore the potential growth space for grain production under existing arable land resource constraints. First, within a multi-regional agricultural production general equilibrium framework, we estimated annual potential productivity data using machine learning algorithms based on historical average potential productivity at the plot-crop level from the GAEZ database. Macro-plot-level simulations indicate that from 2000 to 2015, the potential growth space for grain production declined from approximately 50% to 20%. The potential for increasing grain production can be explained by spatial layout optimization and the realization of potential productivity, with the grain yield increase potential from spatial optimization decreasing from 20% to 15%. Second, macro-level simulations estimating potential productivity based on household microdata reveal that the potential growth space for grain production declined from 30% to 17% between 1995 and 2017. Within this, the yield increase potential from spatial optimization decreased from 18% to 9%. After deducting costs, this optimization could have increased household grain-growing income by 7.4% in 2017. Third, results from a household choice model based on decentralized decision-making indicate that the potential for grain yield increases is approximately 15%. Increasing factor inputs could boost grain production by about 10%, but considering the additional input costs, household net income from grain cultivation would actually decrease. This study indicates that, at the macro level, relaxing spatial planting structure constraints for grain crops could yield a 5%-15% increase in grain production at minimal cost. However, to enhance land productivity and unlock an additional 5%-10% growth potential, appropriate measures in scale operations and policy incentives are necessary. Under current constraints, farmers lack incentives to increase grain production through higher agricultural inputs.